Post by IAMCAPER on Nov 15, 2005 8:14:29 GMT -4
Courtesy of Fox!
Attention K-Mart shoppers! Bargain in aisle five. Please check for your favorite defensive back.
We tackled the subject of the most overpaid NFL players. Of course, the concept of being overpaid in the NFL isn't quite like the concept of being overpaid in other sports with guaranteed contracts. Management can easily dispose of contracts they view as too burdensome. They may have to take a one-year salary-cap penalty, but they don't have to pay the remaining salary. Oh, how the Detroit Tigers would have loved to shed Bobby Higginson's $35 million contract years ago.
Therefore, if someone like Charles Woodson makes $10.5 million, it is because someone thinks he deserves it; and that someone is certainly not one of us. But an underpaid player won't get more money even if everyone thinks he deserves it, unless he holds out and makes enough of a nuisance of himself. It is a biased economic system, but it works better than the economic systems of the other major U.S. sports.
Unlike baseball, every dollar spent by a team is a dollar less to spend elsewhere. For example, in 2004, teams spent an average of 8.6 percent of their salary cap on their quarterback position. The Indianapolis Colts spent 13.5 percent of their cap space on quarterbacks. That is not necessarily money ill-spent since their No. 1 quarterback had one of the greatest passing seasons of all time. But it does mean that the Colts have to find bargains in other areas to compensate for the cap space taken up by Mr. Manning.
To judge the best bargains, I used the advanced statistics we use at FootballOutsiders.com. The basic introduction: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is a statistic that compares a player's performance to the average performance of players in similar situations, and DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) is a statistic that compares the performance of each player to a baseline, when adjusted for opponent defensive quality. You can find a more detailed description of our methods here. I also used various rankings by position found across the Internet, including the FOXSports.com Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
As such, the non-skill players are more subjective than their offensive skill counterparts.
This list must be onto something because it has gone through three rewrites since we started working on it two weeks ago. Three different players who were originally on the list signed new contracts between rough draft and publication. First, Terrence McGee signed an $18 million deal through 2009. McGee was previously earning close to the rookie minimum despite his impact on both the Buffalo secondary and special teams.
And then came Brian Westbrook, who originally ranked third on this list, as a $524,000 cap value in 2004 and $1.4 million in 2005 made him one of the cheapest running backs around. Yet, the Eagles beat us to the punch and have agreed in principal to a five-year deal worth $25 million, putting Westbrook's salary in line with those of LaMont Jordan and Rudi Johnson.
Finally, Arizona signed Neil Rackers to a four-year extension a few days ago (with no specifics announced). Rackers was the best kicker in the NFL last year when it came to kickoffs, eighth when it came to field goals but 24th when it came to bringing home money.
It's nice to see these guys get paid, but there are others left:
10. C Hank Fraley, Philadelphia Eagles
2004: $650k salary; $854k cap value
2005: $650k salary; $854k estimated cap value
The Eagles picked up Fraley in 2000 when the Steelers released him, and he has started every game but one since arriving in Philadelphia (a run that will come to an end this week after Fraley was lost for the season with a rotator-cuff injury). During that time, Philadelphia has had one of the best offensive lines in the league, particularly when it comes to blocking for quarterback Donovan McNabb.
And while this is not considered an offensive line built for power running, the Eagles actually were very good at running the ball up the gut, behind Fraley, until this season. Two years ago, our adjusted line yards stat ranked the Eagles No. 1 in the league on runs up the middle. Last year, the Eagles ranked eighth. Much of Philadelphia's difficulty in running the ball this season is not the line, but the absence of a larger back to play the role that Dorsey Levens, Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter played in past seasons. (No, Lamar Gordon is not fitting that role.)
Nearly making our list was another offensive lineman who comes at a bargain, Pittsburgh's Marvel Smith. Both a Pro Bowl left tackle and a good all-around athlete, Smith is an important cog in Pittsburgh's heavily run-oriented offense. At $1.8 million in compensation for both 2004 and '05, Smith seems like an unlikely bargain, but the elite players at the left tackle position earn as much as $7-9 million.
9. LB Steve Foley, San Diego Chargers
2004: $535k salary; $954k cap value
2005: $540k salary; $1.6 million estimated cap value
Coming out of Houston, Steve Foley was an excellent, but unheralded, addition for the Chargers in 2004. Last year, Foley was the first San Diego player to reach double-digit sacks since 1986. He has another 2.5 sacks this year.
Currently, San Diego's defense ranks seventh in preventing runs over 10 yards and 10th in adjusted sack rate, a stat measuring sacks per pass play adjusted for down, distance and opponent. These numbers suggest that the linebackers have done well both inside (where Donnie Edwards reigns) and outside.
San Diego is also one of the league's top defenses against running backs in the passing game, a strong sign of quality linebackers. With his recent extension, Foley is not the cheapest player around. But at $1.6 million, Foley is at the low end of the pay scale, especially for someone not under a rookie contract.
8. C LeCharles Bentley, New Orleans Saints
2004: $380k salary, $771k cap value
2005: $455k salary; $850k estimated cap value
Now in his fourth year, the Saints' LeCharles Bentley has the ability to transition between guard and center. At his new center position, The Charles, as they say in Quebec, makes the line calls and adjustments and has become one of the more physical interior linemen. Bentley went to the Pro Bowl in 2003 and was an alternate in his first year at center in '04. This year, while the rest of the team falls apart around him, Bentley is having his best season. The Saints are fifth in our offensive line ratings on runs listed as up the middle or behind guard, much higher than their overall ranking of 13th. But 138 different offensive linemen made more money than The Charles did in 2004.
7. WR Deion Branch, New England Patriots
2004: $380k salary; $589k cap value
2005: $455k salary; $664k estimated cap value
Deion Branch is the reigning Super Bowl MVP, but you would hardly know it. This quietly emerging star is still operating under his rookie contract — despite becoming the favorite target of one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. DPAR through eight weeks ranks Branch fifth in value among wide receivers, ahead of such names as Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Randy Moss. He's one of just two receivers in the top 20 earning less than $1 million. Last year, because he missed half the season with a knee injury, Branch was thrown just 51 passes during the regular season, but he still generated enough value to be ranked 35th among the 84 receivers who were thrown 50 passes or more.
According to DVOA, which ranks value per play rather than total value, the only receivers who were more valuable per pass in 2004 were Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Lee Evans and Plaxico Burress. Branch is signed through '06, but he is likely to seek a new deal after this season ends, and the sometimes-stingy Patriots are likely to give it to him.
6. RB Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos
2004: $535k salary; $790k cap value (Anderson)
$230k salary; $611k cap value (Bell)
2005: $540k salary; $795k estimated cap value (Anderson)
$305k salary; $688k cap value (Bell)
Denver is known for a highly effective offensive line and shells out big bucks to maintain that reputation. No team in the league spends a higher percentage of its overall salary cap on the offensive line than the Broncos (26 percent in 2004). Year after year, the Broncos compensate for this with an ability to get the most out of their running backs, who are efficient both as playmakers and as budget line items. A fair amount of credit needs to go to the five guys in the trenches, but the 1-2 combination of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson has been absurdly effective this year. In fact, both are on pace to gain more than 1,000 yards.
Anderson, who didn't play last year due to injury, is seventh in the league in DPAR. With a cap value of less than $800,000, he's the lowest-paid player in the top 10. Bell, a rookie last year, ranked 19th in DPAR — despite having only 75 carries. According to our metrics, 14 different running backs had at least 300 carries and were still not as valuable as Bell. But Denver only had to pay him $230,000 in salary with a cap cost that included $381,000 pro-rated from his $1.72 million rookie signing bonus.
This year, Bell is averaging seven yards per carry, although he's only 16th in DPAR because he has a lot of short runs to go with those highlight-reel touchdowns. How much is he costing Denver? Only $75,000 more than last year. As a pair, Bell and Anderson make about as much combined as T.J. Duckett. Anderson, who signed a four- year extension to his existing contract in 2001, could see a $2 million pay raise in '06. Bell, on the other hand, is still operating under his rookie contract and is signed through '08.
5. DT Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, Jacksonville Jaguars
2004: $505k salary; $1.9 million cap value (Stroud)
$545k salary; $2.0 million cap value (Henderson)
2005: $540k salary; $1.9 million estimated cap value (Stroud)
$789k salary, $2.3 million cap value (Henderson)
With Stroud and Henderson, Jacksonville may have the league's best pair of defensive tackles, and both are reasonably priced at around the $2 million mark. Jacksonville ranked second in 2003 and ninth in '04 against runs up the middle. They're not quite as strong this year — currently ranked 13th — but opponents are still having a lot more success running on Jacksonville by going around the defensive ends rather than running right at Stroud and Henderson.
Stroud is widely considered among the best at his position and made the 2004 Pro Bowl, but Henderson is actually having the better season in '05 — he's made 42 tackles on running plays, the second-highest total for any defensive lineman in the league, and those runs have averaged just 1.7 yards.
These two tackles are certainly not the cheapest players on the Jaguars roster, but they are bargains when compared to other tackles like La'Roi Glover at $4.7 million, Kris Jenkins at $4 million and Kevin Carter at $6 million.
4. DE Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts
2004: $305k salary; $352k cap value
2005: $380k salary; $427k estimated cap value
Although most of the attention goes to Dwight Freeney, the Colts are good on the other side of the defensive line as well. Robert Mathis, primarily a situational pass rusher, is helping turn the Colts from a weak defensive team to a powerful one — something they need to get over the top. Mathis leads the league in sacks this year with nine, and he also leads all defensive linemen in a stat we call "defeats," the number of times a defensive play either causes the offense to lose yardage or stops the offense from converting third or fourth down.
Mathis is even a leader on special teams with a team-high 13 tackles. Freeney makes the cover of sports magazines and earns about $2 million, which seems cheap compared to guys like Bertrand Berry ($5 million in 2004), Michael Strahan ($6.6 million) and Trevor Pryce ($7.8 million). But Mathis gets in his licks for a bargain basement price of $427,000. He probably won't be cheap for long because, like many of the Colts, he's in his last year on this contract.
3. TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
2004: $305k salary; $477k cap value
2005: $380k salary; $552k estimated cap value
Bill Parcells likes his tight ends. Jason Witten recorded the third highest DPAR among tight ends in 2004, and this year, he's second behind Antonio Gates. All this performance comes from a tight end that basically makes the league minimum. In comparison, the two highest-paid tight ends have been Tony Gonzalez and Gates (last year's definition of bargain player), who make approximately $4 million each. Jeremy Shockey, who has been as valuable as Witten this year but wasn't quite as valuable last year, earns roughly $1.8 million. The player our stats rated as the least valuable tight end in the league last year, Boo "Look Ma No Hands" Williams, even made $1.3 million.
2. New England Patriots offensive line
2005: $7.0 million combined estimated cap value
Now we know why metaphors can't pay. The previously unknown (and most likely still unknown) players that make up this offensive line have to be the largest collection of bargains around. It's a good thing they can make some extra money from Madison Avenue, because the Patriots' five starting linemen will make less this year than Walter Jones alone made with Seattle last season. And that figure includes Matt Light, the Daddy Warbucks of the group, who entered this year with a $2.7 million cap figure.
Last year's unit ranked fifth in both of our offensive line metrics, adjusted line yards (run blocking) and adjusted sack rate (pass protection). This year's unit started with four of the same players, along with rookie Logan Mankins; when Light was injured, he was replaced by rookie Nick Kaczur ($367,000), who immediately became the weakest link. The Patriots have struggled to run the ball this year, but this line still ranks high in pass protection with the fourth-lowest adjusted sack rate in the league.
1. QB Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos
2004: $660k salary; $1.7 million cap value
2005: $665k salary; $1.7 million estimated cap value
In 2003, Mike Shanahan needed a new centerpiece for his offense following the demise of the Bob, I mean, the Brian Griese Project. He signed Plummer to a seven-year, $40 million contract. Plummer has not been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since joining the Broncos, but he has been consistently good despite a few bone-headed flashbacks to his Arizona days. In 2004, Plummer ranked 11th in DPAR among quarterbacks, but was ranked an embarrassing 32nd in pay. That pay ranked him in line with stalwarts Patrick Ramsey and Kyle Boller. The average pay for the 10 quarterbacks above Plummer was $5 million, and Matt Hasselbeck, one spot below in our DPAR rankings, earned almost $4 million more.
So far in 2005, Plummer is playing the best football of his career. After Denver's offensive explosion against Philadelphia, he ranks fourth in DPAR, with only Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning ahead of him. Plummer has 12 touchdowns this year against just three interceptions.
Plummer's transition from pauper to prince could come next year. His salary is due to jump from $665,000 to $4.3 million. Plummer will need to continue avoiding bad decisions and probably needs to take the Broncos somewhere in the playoffs this year to deserve that kind of cash.
Attention K-Mart shoppers! Bargain in aisle five. Please check for your favorite defensive back.
We tackled the subject of the most overpaid NFL players. Of course, the concept of being overpaid in the NFL isn't quite like the concept of being overpaid in other sports with guaranteed contracts. Management can easily dispose of contracts they view as too burdensome. They may have to take a one-year salary-cap penalty, but they don't have to pay the remaining salary. Oh, how the Detroit Tigers would have loved to shed Bobby Higginson's $35 million contract years ago.
Therefore, if someone like Charles Woodson makes $10.5 million, it is because someone thinks he deserves it; and that someone is certainly not one of us. But an underpaid player won't get more money even if everyone thinks he deserves it, unless he holds out and makes enough of a nuisance of himself. It is a biased economic system, but it works better than the economic systems of the other major U.S. sports.
Unlike baseball, every dollar spent by a team is a dollar less to spend elsewhere. For example, in 2004, teams spent an average of 8.6 percent of their salary cap on their quarterback position. The Indianapolis Colts spent 13.5 percent of their cap space on quarterbacks. That is not necessarily money ill-spent since their No. 1 quarterback had one of the greatest passing seasons of all time. But it does mean that the Colts have to find bargains in other areas to compensate for the cap space taken up by Mr. Manning.
To judge the best bargains, I used the advanced statistics we use at FootballOutsiders.com. The basic introduction: DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is a statistic that compares a player's performance to the average performance of players in similar situations, and DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) is a statistic that compares the performance of each player to a baseline, when adjusted for opponent defensive quality. You can find a more detailed description of our methods here. I also used various rankings by position found across the Internet, including the FOXSports.com Fantasy Football Draft Guide.
As such, the non-skill players are more subjective than their offensive skill counterparts.
This list must be onto something because it has gone through three rewrites since we started working on it two weeks ago. Three different players who were originally on the list signed new contracts between rough draft and publication. First, Terrence McGee signed an $18 million deal through 2009. McGee was previously earning close to the rookie minimum despite his impact on both the Buffalo secondary and special teams.
And then came Brian Westbrook, who originally ranked third on this list, as a $524,000 cap value in 2004 and $1.4 million in 2005 made him one of the cheapest running backs around. Yet, the Eagles beat us to the punch and have agreed in principal to a five-year deal worth $25 million, putting Westbrook's salary in line with those of LaMont Jordan and Rudi Johnson.
Finally, Arizona signed Neil Rackers to a four-year extension a few days ago (with no specifics announced). Rackers was the best kicker in the NFL last year when it came to kickoffs, eighth when it came to field goals but 24th when it came to bringing home money.
It's nice to see these guys get paid, but there are others left:
10. C Hank Fraley, Philadelphia Eagles
2004: $650k salary; $854k cap value
2005: $650k salary; $854k estimated cap value
The Eagles picked up Fraley in 2000 when the Steelers released him, and he has started every game but one since arriving in Philadelphia (a run that will come to an end this week after Fraley was lost for the season with a rotator-cuff injury). During that time, Philadelphia has had one of the best offensive lines in the league, particularly when it comes to blocking for quarterback Donovan McNabb.
And while this is not considered an offensive line built for power running, the Eagles actually were very good at running the ball up the gut, behind Fraley, until this season. Two years ago, our adjusted line yards stat ranked the Eagles No. 1 in the league on runs up the middle. Last year, the Eagles ranked eighth. Much of Philadelphia's difficulty in running the ball this season is not the line, but the absence of a larger back to play the role that Dorsey Levens, Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter played in past seasons. (No, Lamar Gordon is not fitting that role.)
Nearly making our list was another offensive lineman who comes at a bargain, Pittsburgh's Marvel Smith. Both a Pro Bowl left tackle and a good all-around athlete, Smith is an important cog in Pittsburgh's heavily run-oriented offense. At $1.8 million in compensation for both 2004 and '05, Smith seems like an unlikely bargain, but the elite players at the left tackle position earn as much as $7-9 million.
9. LB Steve Foley, San Diego Chargers
2004: $535k salary; $954k cap value
2005: $540k salary; $1.6 million estimated cap value
Coming out of Houston, Steve Foley was an excellent, but unheralded, addition for the Chargers in 2004. Last year, Foley was the first San Diego player to reach double-digit sacks since 1986. He has another 2.5 sacks this year.
Currently, San Diego's defense ranks seventh in preventing runs over 10 yards and 10th in adjusted sack rate, a stat measuring sacks per pass play adjusted for down, distance and opponent. These numbers suggest that the linebackers have done well both inside (where Donnie Edwards reigns) and outside.
San Diego is also one of the league's top defenses against running backs in the passing game, a strong sign of quality linebackers. With his recent extension, Foley is not the cheapest player around. But at $1.6 million, Foley is at the low end of the pay scale, especially for someone not under a rookie contract.
8. C LeCharles Bentley, New Orleans Saints
2004: $380k salary, $771k cap value
2005: $455k salary; $850k estimated cap value
Now in his fourth year, the Saints' LeCharles Bentley has the ability to transition between guard and center. At his new center position, The Charles, as they say in Quebec, makes the line calls and adjustments and has become one of the more physical interior linemen. Bentley went to the Pro Bowl in 2003 and was an alternate in his first year at center in '04. This year, while the rest of the team falls apart around him, Bentley is having his best season. The Saints are fifth in our offensive line ratings on runs listed as up the middle or behind guard, much higher than their overall ranking of 13th. But 138 different offensive linemen made more money than The Charles did in 2004.
7. WR Deion Branch, New England Patriots
2004: $380k salary; $589k cap value
2005: $455k salary; $664k estimated cap value
Deion Branch is the reigning Super Bowl MVP, but you would hardly know it. This quietly emerging star is still operating under his rookie contract — despite becoming the favorite target of one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. DPAR through eight weeks ranks Branch fifth in value among wide receivers, ahead of such names as Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Randy Moss. He's one of just two receivers in the top 20 earning less than $1 million. Last year, because he missed half the season with a knee injury, Branch was thrown just 51 passes during the regular season, but he still generated enough value to be ranked 35th among the 84 receivers who were thrown 50 passes or more.
According to DVOA, which ranks value per play rather than total value, the only receivers who were more valuable per pass in 2004 were Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Lee Evans and Plaxico Burress. Branch is signed through '06, but he is likely to seek a new deal after this season ends, and the sometimes-stingy Patriots are likely to give it to him.
6. RB Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos
2004: $535k salary; $790k cap value (Anderson)
$230k salary; $611k cap value (Bell)
2005: $540k salary; $795k estimated cap value (Anderson)
$305k salary; $688k cap value (Bell)
Denver is known for a highly effective offensive line and shells out big bucks to maintain that reputation. No team in the league spends a higher percentage of its overall salary cap on the offensive line than the Broncos (26 percent in 2004). Year after year, the Broncos compensate for this with an ability to get the most out of their running backs, who are efficient both as playmakers and as budget line items. A fair amount of credit needs to go to the five guys in the trenches, but the 1-2 combination of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson has been absurdly effective this year. In fact, both are on pace to gain more than 1,000 yards.
Anderson, who didn't play last year due to injury, is seventh in the league in DPAR. With a cap value of less than $800,000, he's the lowest-paid player in the top 10. Bell, a rookie last year, ranked 19th in DPAR — despite having only 75 carries. According to our metrics, 14 different running backs had at least 300 carries and were still not as valuable as Bell. But Denver only had to pay him $230,000 in salary with a cap cost that included $381,000 pro-rated from his $1.72 million rookie signing bonus.
This year, Bell is averaging seven yards per carry, although he's only 16th in DPAR because he has a lot of short runs to go with those highlight-reel touchdowns. How much is he costing Denver? Only $75,000 more than last year. As a pair, Bell and Anderson make about as much combined as T.J. Duckett. Anderson, who signed a four- year extension to his existing contract in 2001, could see a $2 million pay raise in '06. Bell, on the other hand, is still operating under his rookie contract and is signed through '08.
5. DT Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, Jacksonville Jaguars
2004: $505k salary; $1.9 million cap value (Stroud)
$545k salary; $2.0 million cap value (Henderson)
2005: $540k salary; $1.9 million estimated cap value (Stroud)
$789k salary, $2.3 million cap value (Henderson)
With Stroud and Henderson, Jacksonville may have the league's best pair of defensive tackles, and both are reasonably priced at around the $2 million mark. Jacksonville ranked second in 2003 and ninth in '04 against runs up the middle. They're not quite as strong this year — currently ranked 13th — but opponents are still having a lot more success running on Jacksonville by going around the defensive ends rather than running right at Stroud and Henderson.
Stroud is widely considered among the best at his position and made the 2004 Pro Bowl, but Henderson is actually having the better season in '05 — he's made 42 tackles on running plays, the second-highest total for any defensive lineman in the league, and those runs have averaged just 1.7 yards.
These two tackles are certainly not the cheapest players on the Jaguars roster, but they are bargains when compared to other tackles like La'Roi Glover at $4.7 million, Kris Jenkins at $4 million and Kevin Carter at $6 million.
4. DE Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts
2004: $305k salary; $352k cap value
2005: $380k salary; $427k estimated cap value
Although most of the attention goes to Dwight Freeney, the Colts are good on the other side of the defensive line as well. Robert Mathis, primarily a situational pass rusher, is helping turn the Colts from a weak defensive team to a powerful one — something they need to get over the top. Mathis leads the league in sacks this year with nine, and he also leads all defensive linemen in a stat we call "defeats," the number of times a defensive play either causes the offense to lose yardage or stops the offense from converting third or fourth down.
Mathis is even a leader on special teams with a team-high 13 tackles. Freeney makes the cover of sports magazines and earns about $2 million, which seems cheap compared to guys like Bertrand Berry ($5 million in 2004), Michael Strahan ($6.6 million) and Trevor Pryce ($7.8 million). But Mathis gets in his licks for a bargain basement price of $427,000. He probably won't be cheap for long because, like many of the Colts, he's in his last year on this contract.
3. TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
2004: $305k salary; $477k cap value
2005: $380k salary; $552k estimated cap value
Bill Parcells likes his tight ends. Jason Witten recorded the third highest DPAR among tight ends in 2004, and this year, he's second behind Antonio Gates. All this performance comes from a tight end that basically makes the league minimum. In comparison, the two highest-paid tight ends have been Tony Gonzalez and Gates (last year's definition of bargain player), who make approximately $4 million each. Jeremy Shockey, who has been as valuable as Witten this year but wasn't quite as valuable last year, earns roughly $1.8 million. The player our stats rated as the least valuable tight end in the league last year, Boo "Look Ma No Hands" Williams, even made $1.3 million.
2. New England Patriots offensive line
2005: $7.0 million combined estimated cap value
Now we know why metaphors can't pay. The previously unknown (and most likely still unknown) players that make up this offensive line have to be the largest collection of bargains around. It's a good thing they can make some extra money from Madison Avenue, because the Patriots' five starting linemen will make less this year than Walter Jones alone made with Seattle last season. And that figure includes Matt Light, the Daddy Warbucks of the group, who entered this year with a $2.7 million cap figure.
Last year's unit ranked fifth in both of our offensive line metrics, adjusted line yards (run blocking) and adjusted sack rate (pass protection). This year's unit started with four of the same players, along with rookie Logan Mankins; when Light was injured, he was replaced by rookie Nick Kaczur ($367,000), who immediately became the weakest link. The Patriots have struggled to run the ball this year, but this line still ranks high in pass protection with the fourth-lowest adjusted sack rate in the league.
1. QB Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos
2004: $660k salary; $1.7 million cap value
2005: $665k salary; $1.7 million estimated cap value
In 2003, Mike Shanahan needed a new centerpiece for his offense following the demise of the Bob, I mean, the Brian Griese Project. He signed Plummer to a seven-year, $40 million contract. Plummer has not been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since joining the Broncos, but he has been consistently good despite a few bone-headed flashbacks to his Arizona days. In 2004, Plummer ranked 11th in DPAR among quarterbacks, but was ranked an embarrassing 32nd in pay. That pay ranked him in line with stalwarts Patrick Ramsey and Kyle Boller. The average pay for the 10 quarterbacks above Plummer was $5 million, and Matt Hasselbeck, one spot below in our DPAR rankings, earned almost $4 million more.
So far in 2005, Plummer is playing the best football of his career. After Denver's offensive explosion against Philadelphia, he ranks fourth in DPAR, with only Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning ahead of him. Plummer has 12 touchdowns this year against just three interceptions.
Plummer's transition from pauper to prince could come next year. His salary is due to jump from $665,000 to $4.3 million. Plummer will need to continue avoiding bad decisions and probably needs to take the Broncos somewhere in the playoffs this year to deserve that kind of cash.